A lot of people had concerns with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett going into the Yankees series.  I didn’t see anything wrong with either of them.  Jon located his fastball well by pitching the Yankee hitters inside with his 94 mph fastball.  The only times he got into trouble were missed locations on “get-me-over” fastballs early in the counts to Damon and Teixeira.  Those two homeruns resulted from what Lester has been taught; to get ahead of the hitter early in the count by coming after him with your best pitch - the fastball.

If you look at the two teams Beckett struggled against - Tampa Bay and the Yankees - it’s easy to see why he may have struggled.  Each team has lineups packed with good hitters who can make adjustments, a thorough scouting report on Boston pitching, and familiarity with Beckett after playing against him within the AL East division.  The one problem I have seen with Beckett, and I didn’t notice it last night, is his tendency to slow the game down when he gets runners on base.  With men on base, Beckett is very deliberate between pitches and this might cause him to lose some rhythm on the mound.  With men on base his location is off, he looks to be guiding the ball at times.

Regardless, both Jon Lester and Josh Beckett look to be fine and I would expect them to get stronger as the season progresses.  Lester will end the season with numbers similar to what he posted last year while Beckett will exceed last year’s totals, but not quite reach the statistics he reached during 2007 when he came in second place in the AL Cy Young voting.

The pressure is back on the Tampa Bay Rays!  Maddon had his staff set up the way he wanted, but the Rays relievers had a bout of poor location.  Blowing a seven run lead is damaging to a team in many ways and now the Rays may second guess themselves slightly which is a far cry from the confidence they exuded 12 hours ago.  Meanwhile, they think the Red Sox can come back and so do the guys in Terry Francona’s clubhouse.Tom Verducci reported in Sports Illustrated that Josh Beckett has a torn oblique.  He seems to be getting around just fine and I still think his problem is the layoff more than anything physical.  In his last two outings he had poor location and his velocity was maybe 2-3 mph below where it normally is, but I didn’t see anything that lead me to believe that he was seriously injured.  James Shields is a breaking ball pitcher who doesn’t have Beckett’s velocity, but has been effective in hitting his location.

The Red Sox just need to continue to take this series one game at a time and make adjustments at crucial points in the game.  I have a good feeling about the team heading back down south.

The Red Sox are down 3-1 in this series but they have come back from deficits like this in the past.  This is a different team than the team in 2004 and even from last year.  If they make some adjustments, they could stay competitive in this series.

With Matsuzaka pitching for the Sox tonight, the Rays will be patient with him and if they get walks, they will run on the basepaths.   Lester’s problem the other night was that he was missing location high up in the strike zone.  Mistakes up in the zone often turn into homeruns, especially against good hitting teams like the Tampa Bay Rays.  The pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground and not in the air because these flyballs are hit hard out of the ballpark.

The Red Sox hitters are hitting far too many weak ground balls.  Too many times in this series, I have seen hitters roll over the ball and hit a lazy ground ball.  The only guy hitting line drives recently is Kotsay.   The way to hit hard line drives is to try to keep the ball on the bat as long as possible and make contact out in front of your body.  This timing can be thrown off by a pitcher who changes speeds and locations effectively.  If the Red Sox can make better adjustments against Kazmir tonight, it could bode well for them for the rest of the series.

A win tonight will be huge for the team.  To the best of my knowledge, there is no injury to Josh Beckett and that his problems are a result of the long layoff more than anything else.  If he were to come back and pitch a strong game 6, we could have a very interesting situation unfolding in Tampa Bay this weekend.

Game 1
I like the Red Sox chances in this series but there are some factors that could swing the advantage in this series either way.  Any emotions involving the Red Sox brawl with James Shields is out the window at this point because too much is riding on these games to allow emotion to become involved.  The team has been spending time and looking at Shields’ most recent starts. Some hitters need to bring a change of approach and I expect them to do that tonight.

Matsuzaka walks a lot of guys and the Rays have guys who can run, which isn’t a combination that works in Boston’s favor.  When Matsuzaka starts to nibble, his pitch count goes up quick.  He needs to get ahead of hitters to make it harder for them to be aggressive.  As a hitter, when I guy when the guy came right at me I couldn’t be ass aggressive as I wanted because the strikes pile up and you lose control.  But if the count is 2 balls and 1 strike and the hitter feels that you can’t find the plate, he will gain confidence.

Game 2

Beckett will pitch better because he doesn’t have a 14 day layoff to contend with.  He will be better than the last outing but how much better is the question we will find out on Saturday night.  The Red Sox had success against Scott Kazmir last time we faced him and you have to anticipate that he will make adjustments because he is an outstanding pitcher.

The Rays have an advantage everywhere, not just at home.  They are young and talented and won when there weren’t any fans at the games.  For the Rays, home field advantage is inside the clubhouse among twenty-five guys who have beaten adversity for an entire season.

The Red Sox need to win at least one game down in Tampa.  Hopefully they can win the first game because they have a better chance of winning the second with Beckett on the mound than Matsuzaka.  If they lose the first game, the second almost becomes a must win type game.

Prediction: The Red Sox earn at least a split in the two games in Tampa and take the series in 6 games.

The media has made a point about the importance of home field advantage in the upcoming series against Tampa Bay.  Back when I played, we never worried about home field advantage and I don’t think this Red Sox team will either.

But there are plenty of things that have changed since I played.  The biggest change is that when I played, managers did not stress the importance of match ups.  The Red Sox teams I played on had everyday players and experienced guys like Rico and Yaz who a manager would never let sit for a game because they struggle against a certain pitcher.  There were no role players, no specialist pitchers, and really no scouting reports.  Free agency wasn’t so prevalent so you knew the opponents and didn’t need reports on paper because you knew the opponent in your head.

If you take a look at numbers, the bullpens are close but Tampa’s is a little bit better, both pitching rotations are comparable, and the lineups favor Boston slightly as the Rays did not have a hitter who batted over .300 this season.  Statistically the teams are very close.

But the Rays have given the Red Sox trouble all year.  The Angels played a great season and got to 100 wins, but had the advantage of facing the Rangers, A’s, and Mariners about 60 times this season.  Look how many times the Rays have come from behind to win against the Red Sox this season.  Tampa has gained confidence by beating money market teams and now they are ready to play on the main stage.  They have beaten tough teams, they’re young, and they can play.  No matter the outcome, they have made a name for themselves.  The Rays are for real.

The Rays pulled off a tough win last night and show again why they are still in first place this late in the season.  They have 5 good guys in the rotation who will give them 5 good innings and their offense doesn’t quit.  Playing a first place team on the road is always tough and last night Tampa Bay showed why.  Sonnanstine did his best to match Josh Beckett, and Carlos Pena kept his team in the game, allowing the Rays to get to the Sox bullpen.

Tonight’s game is pivotal, but the next series in Toronto could be equally as important.  As I have said throughout the year, Toronto always play the Red Sox tough and this season the Blue Jays are 43-30 at home.

Beyond Tampa Bay and Toronto, the road to the World Series doesn’t get any easier because the Angels are still the best team in the AL.

The offense really came alive last night and the key players on this Red Sox team appear to be healthy.  The one concern I had going into last night’s game was as to how Mike Lowell would play and he answered any questions about his health in the first inning when he launched his 17th home run of the season.  Another win in this series either tonight or tomorrow will guarantee the Red Sox at least a share of first place in the AL East when they head to Toronto on Thursday.

Tampa Bay played well in New York this weekend and I feel it’s too early to think that the Rays are starting to fade down the stretch.  The Rays are a team that a team that has proven themselves throughout the season and are now starting to walk around with a target on their back.  If Tampa Bay is fading down the stretch it’s because teams are playing them harder, not because Tampa Bay is playing softer.

Much has been made of the inexperience of this year’s Tampa Bay Rays team.  Experience doesn’t have anything to do with postseason success.  The Rays are a team who have been around the league and have experienced just about everything necessary to cope with the playoffs.To perform in the postseason all a player really needs is two years of big league experience.  Two years is about the amount of service time that a ball player needs to become acclimated to the intensity of professional baseball and to pick up on the nuances in a hitter or pitcher’s tendencies.  There really isn’t much that a player will see in the playoffs that they haven’t encountered at some point during the regular season.In the playoff push, the intensity ramps up at the end of regular season and prepares the team for what they will see in October.  There are plenty of guys who have thrived in the playoffs in their first or second season.  For examples, look no further than the postseason performances of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007.  For every Rick Ankiel meltdown in the playoffs you have 5 or six players like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright, or Josh Beckett who thrive while under the spotlight.

Far more important than post season experience is clubhouse chemistry. The Yankees have a lineup loaded with talent and experience, and yet they haven’t won anything in years.

Last night was a key win for the Boston Red Sox because it means they can’t be swept in the Bronx and, unfortunately for Yankee fans in their last season at the original Yankee Stadium, a sweep of Boston was the Bombers’ only hope of making the playoffs this season.  Of course the Red Sox need to take their season one game at a time, but this Yankees series no longer has a chance to break Boston.  The next series against Chicago will be much more important than this New York series.  For the remainder of the season the outcomes of games involving Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and the White Sox will be much more important to the postseason hopes of the Red Sox than any of the events occurring in New York.