It took the Red Sox until the 8th inning of last night’s game to put together some offense and I just hope the hitters can continue to produce. But now that the Wild Card berth into the 2009 Playoffs is securely in hand, perhaps this is a team that needs to rest. The offense has looked flat over the past couple of weeks and it’s difficult to pin down why a team with this much talent and success for the majority of the season has given such lackluster performances over the past few weeks.
As I have stated for the duration of the season, the success of this Red Sox team will hinge on pitching. Buchholz poor start last night was disconcerting, but he has looked good since being called up from Triple-A in July. I assume that he will rebound from last night’s performance and continue his success as the third starter in the Red Sox rotation, which makes the reemergence of Daisuke Matsuzaka that much more important.
Daisuke, since returning from the disabled list, has looked like the pitcher he was two years ago rather than the struggling right-hander who was lambasted in the press at the beginning of this year. He looks to have regained his command and his confidence, as evidenced by his performance in the Bronx this weekend. Daisuke threw 115 pitches and allowed 1 run over 7 innings against aYankee lineup that features a hitter in the bottom third of the lineup (Cano) who is batting .320 with 25 homeruns.
Since his return from the disabled list on September 15th, Daisuke has an ERA less than 2.00. Much has been made of his unorthodox new approach to warming up before the game and between innings. While this may have an impact on his command, I think focus on 3 or 4 different pitches, rather than trying to throw his whole arsenal, has lead to his improved results.
Despite the recent struggles of the Red Sox against the Yankees, we should remember that this team went 2-1 against the Angels this month and is 6-1 against the Tigers this year. We probably all need some rest this week, but one week from today I expect everyone to be in postseason form.
It was a big win last night for the Red Sox because the Angels are a team they are likely to see in the post season. I know that people have argued that Brian Fuentes’ pitch to Nick Green was a strike, but the bottom line is that if the umpire calls it a ball - it’s a ball. In my opinion it was too close to take, but the walk still counts.
The single that ended the game was a situation where the outfielder (Rivera) didn’t make the play either because of inexperience or lack of interest. During my era, I am diving for that ball because I know I have a very good shot at throwing out the runner if he tries to tag from third and score the winning run. As a matter of fact, as long as the catcher can hold onto the ball, that runner will be out.
It gets a little easier for the Red Sox after this series, but it gets tougher for the Texas Rangers who now sit 6.5 games back in the Wild Card Race. Daisuke, during his last start, looked like the pitcher he was 2 years ago. The Red Sox may finally be putting all of the pieces together after 5 months of disorganization… just in time for October.
The Red Sox are down 3-1 in this series but they have come back from deficits like this in the past. This is a different team than the team in 2004 and even from last year. If they make some adjustments, they could stay competitive in this series.
With Matsuzaka pitching for the Sox tonight, the Rays will be patient with him and if they get walks, they will run on the basepaths. Lester’s problem the other night was that he was missing location high up in the strike zone. Mistakes up in the zone often turn into homeruns, especially against good hitting teams like the Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground and not in the air because these flyballs are hit hard out of the ballpark.
The Red Sox hitters are hitting far too many weak ground balls. Too many times in this series, I have seen hitters roll over the ball and hit a lazy ground ball. The only guy hitting line drives recently is Kotsay. The way to hit hard line drives is to try to keep the ball on the bat as long as possible and make contact out in front of your body. This timing can be thrown off by a pitcher who changes speeds and locations effectively. If the Red Sox can make better adjustments against Kazmir tonight, it could bode well for them for the rest of the series.
A win tonight will be huge for the team. To the best of my knowledge, there is no injury to Josh Beckett and that his problems are a result of the long layoff more than anything else. If he were to come back and pitch a strong game 6, we could have a very interesting situation unfolding in Tampa Bay this weekend.
Game 1
I like the Red Sox chances in this series but there are some factors that could swing the advantage in this series either way. Any emotions involving the Red Sox brawl with James Shields is out the window at this point because too much is riding on these games to allow emotion to become involved. The team has been spending time and looking at Shields’ most recent starts. Some hitters need to bring a change of approach and I expect them to do that tonight.
Matsuzaka walks a lot of guys and the Rays have guys who can run, which isn’t a combination that works in Boston’s favor. When Matsuzaka starts to nibble, his pitch count goes up quick. He needs to get ahead of hitters to make it harder for them to be aggressive. As a hitter, when I guy when the guy came right at me I couldn’t be ass aggressive as I wanted because the strikes pile up and you lose control. But if the count is 2 balls and 1 strike and the hitter feels that you can’t find the plate, he will gain confidence.
Game 2
Beckett will pitch better because he doesn’t have a 14 day layoff to contend with. He will be better than the last outing but how much better is the question we will find out on Saturday night. The Red Sox had success against Scott Kazmir last time we faced him and you have to anticipate that he will make adjustments because he is an outstanding pitcher.
The Rays have an advantage everywhere, not just at home. They are young and talented and won when there weren’t any fans at the games. For the Rays, home field advantage is inside the clubhouse among twenty-five guys who have beaten adversity for an entire season.
The Red Sox need to win at least one game down in Tampa. Hopefully they can win the first game because they have a better chance of winning the second with Beckett on the mound than Matsuzaka. If they lose the first game, the second almost becomes a must win type game.
Prediction:The Red Sox earn at least a split in the two games in Tampa and take the series in 6 games.
Daisuke Matsuzaka doesn’t have the same stuff as Lester so I want to see how this game plays out. A pitcher can’t afford to walk guys in this lineup because if the Angels are able to get men on base they will come back and score. Daisuke needs to make the hitters earn anything they get in their at-bats by keeping hitters on the balls of their feet and not on the heels.
Expect the hitters to show the same patience tonight against Santana that was successful in game 1 against John Lackey. The important thing for the Red Sox to remember is to hit the ball where it is pitched and not try to do too much. Pull the inside pitch and if the pitch is away from the hitter then hit it to the opposite field.
The bullpen pitched well in the first game and Terry Francona can use a lot of the same guys because of the off day between each game. Everybody in the bullpen is healthy so Terry can use the same guy to set up in two straight games or go to the bullpen early if Daisuke gets wild.
The regular season series doesn’t mean anything now that the playoffs are here. Looking at the two teams on paper, the Red Sox have an edge in hitting and pitching. The Angels have been successful in the intangible aspects of the game. They have the ability to win close games with excellent situational hitting and by manufacturing runs through Mike Scioscia’s brand of small ball. The Angels proved this season that they can get to 100 wins without Vladimir Guerrero hitting 30 homeruns or any pitcher winning 20 games.
But in this series, you have to like the Red Sox chances of winning while sending Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Josh Beckett out to the mound in a best of 5 series. Jon Lester has pitched in the World Series! These young guys from Boston play in a packed house every night and they have all been to the post-season in the past. This series will hinge on which team is sharper. When someone tells you that you will be on National TV that night, there are a couple of things you can do: you can allow your nerves to control you or you can rise to the occasion.
The Red Sox have some health issues, but as a unit i think they have some guys heating up at the right time. It’s a testament to Theo Epstein and the front office to see guys like Justin Masterson making an impact in the bullpen in time for the playoffs. The Red Sox Hitters should have a good chance to come alive against the Angels pitching and the starting pitching should be good enought to keep the Sox in the game.
So, they changed the rotation so that Matsuzaka will pitch tonight instead of Lester. I have to say that Daisuke Matsuzaka’s chances of winning 20 games this season are very good. Rick Sutcliffe predicted 20 wins last week on ESPN.com and you have to favor Matsuzaka’s chances at this point.
For the majority of the season, this team will not be the same team offensively that you saw last night and in Tampa this weekend. They are going to hit and the staff will get the run support to win games. Big Papi is not a sub .200 hitter. Mike Lowell’s return should give the offense an additional boost.
What the offense needs to do is score early and deliver in the important situations. Last week there was a situation where they had a man on third with one out and couldn’t score the run. Whoever was up hit ball to the right side but didn’t elevate. With the infield in, you need to hit it hard and elevate to advance the runner. With the fielders playing in so close in that situation you can’t hit it to the pitchers mound, you need to get past the infield dirt.
