The Red Sox have slated Jon Lester to pitch ahead of Josh Beckett for the opener of the American League Division Series in California on Thursday. The media has made an issue about the decision to put this year’s best pitcher on the staff (Lester) ahead of the pitcher with the excellent post-season track record (Beckett). It doesn’t matter which order you put those two guys in because the Red Sox plan to use Lester and Beckett twice each if the series is stretched to five games. If Lester starts the series, Beckett is in line to pitch in the 5th and deciding game of the series.
The Red Sox pitching matches up well against the Angels in this series as the Red Sox have faced the Angles starters many times in both regular and postseason play (it must be noted that Kazmir has pitched very well since being traded from Tampa Bay). Where the Angels can make life difficult for the Red Sox is on the base paths. Their lineup is loaded with contact hitters and smart and fast baserunners and I expect Mike Scioscia to be aggressive this series.
It will be a competitive series that I think will go the full five games. Hopefully, the Red Sox come out on top.
A lot of people had concerns with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett going into the Yankees series. I didn’t see anything wrong with either of them. Jon located his fastball well by pitching the Yankee hitters inside with his 94 mph fastball. The only times he got into trouble were missed locations on “get-me-over” fastballs early in the counts to Damon and Teixeira. Those two homeruns resulted from what Lester has been taught; to get ahead of the hitter early in the count by coming after him with your best pitch - the fastball.
If you look at the two teams Beckett struggled against - Tampa Bay and the Yankees - it’s easy to see why he may have struggled. Each team has lineups packed with good hitters who can make adjustments, a thorough scouting report on Boston pitching, and familiarity with Beckett after playing against him within the AL East division. The one problem I have seen with Beckett, and I didn’t notice it last night, is his tendency to slow the game down when he gets runners on base. With men on base, Beckett is very deliberate between pitches and this might cause him to lose some rhythm on the mound. With men on base his location is off, he looks to be guiding the ball at times.
Regardless, both Jon Lester and Josh Beckett look to be fine and I would expect them to get stronger as the season progresses. Lester will end the season with numbers similar to what he posted last year while Beckett will exceed last year’s totals, but not quite reach the statistics he reached during 2007 when he came in second place in the AL Cy Young voting.
The pressure is back on the Tampa Bay Rays! Maddon had his staff set up the way he wanted, but the Rays relievers had a bout of poor location. Blowing a seven run lead is damaging to a team in many ways and now the Rays may second guess themselves slightly which is a far cry from the confidence they exuded 12 hours ago. Meanwhile, they think the Red Sox can come back and so do the guys in Terry Francona’s clubhouse.Tom Verducci reported in Sports Illustrated that Josh Beckett has a torn oblique. He seems to be getting around just fine and I still think his problem is the layoff more than anything physical. In his last two outings he had poor location and his velocity was maybe 2-3 mph below where it normally is, but I didn’t see anything that lead me to believe that he was seriously injured. James Shields is a breaking ball pitcher who doesn’t have Beckett’s velocity, but has been effective in hitting his location.
The Red Sox just need to continue to take this series one game at a time and make adjustments at crucial points in the game. I have a good feeling about the team heading back down south.
The Red Sox are down 3-1 in this series but they have come back from deficits like this in the past. This is a different team than the team in 2004 and even from last year. If they make some adjustments, they could stay competitive in this series.
With Matsuzaka pitching for the Sox tonight, the Rays will be patient with him and if they get walks, they will run on the basepaths. Lester’s problem the other night was that he was missing location high up in the strike zone. Mistakes up in the zone often turn into homeruns, especially against good hitting teams like the Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground and not in the air because these flyballs are hit hard out of the ballpark.
The Red Sox hitters are hitting far too many weak ground balls. Too many times in this series, I have seen hitters roll over the ball and hit a lazy ground ball. The only guy hitting line drives recently is Kotsay. The way to hit hard line drives is to try to keep the ball on the bat as long as possible and make contact out in front of your body. This timing can be thrown off by a pitcher who changes speeds and locations effectively. If the Red Sox can make better adjustments against Kazmir tonight, it could bode well for them for the rest of the series.
A win tonight will be huge for the team. To the best of my knowledge, there is no injury to Josh Beckett and that his problems are a result of the long layoff more than anything else. If he were to come back and pitch a strong game 6, we could have a very interesting situation unfolding in Tampa Bay this weekend.
Game 1
I like the Red Sox chances in this series but there are some factors that could swing the advantage in this series either way. Any emotions involving the Red Sox brawl with James Shields is out the window at this point because too much is riding on these games to allow emotion to become involved. The team has been spending time and looking at Shields’ most recent starts. Some hitters need to bring a change of approach and I expect them to do that tonight.
Matsuzaka walks a lot of guys and the Rays have guys who can run, which isn’t a combination that works in Boston’s favor. When Matsuzaka starts to nibble, his pitch count goes up quick. He needs to get ahead of hitters to make it harder for them to be aggressive. As a hitter, when I guy when the guy came right at me I couldn’t be ass aggressive as I wanted because the strikes pile up and you lose control. But if the count is 2 balls and 1 strike and the hitter feels that you can’t find the plate, he will gain confidence.
Game 2
Beckett will pitch better because he doesn’t have a 14 day layoff to contend with. He will be better than the last outing but how much better is the question we will find out on Saturday night. The Red Sox had success against Scott Kazmir last time we faced him and you have to anticipate that he will make adjustments because he is an outstanding pitcher.
The Rays have an advantage everywhere, not just at home. They are young and talented and won when there weren’t any fans at the games. For the Rays, home field advantage is inside the clubhouse among twenty-five guys who have beaten adversity for an entire season.
The Red Sox need to win at least one game down in Tampa. Hopefully they can win the first game because they have a better chance of winning the second with Beckett on the mound than Matsuzaka. If they lose the first game, the second almost becomes a must win type game.
Prediction:The Red Sox earn at least a split in the two games in Tampa and take the series in 6 games.
The regular season series doesn’t mean anything now that the playoffs are here. Looking at the two teams on paper, the Red Sox have an edge in hitting and pitching. The Angels have been successful in the intangible aspects of the game. They have the ability to win close games with excellent situational hitting and by manufacturing runs through Mike Scioscia’s brand of small ball. The Angels proved this season that they can get to 100 wins without Vladimir Guerrero hitting 30 homeruns or any pitcher winning 20 games.
But in this series, you have to like the Red Sox chances of winning while sending Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Josh Beckett out to the mound in a best of 5 series. Jon Lester has pitched in the World Series! These young guys from Boston play in a packed house every night and they have all been to the post-season in the past. This series will hinge on which team is sharper. When someone tells you that you will be on National TV that night, there are a couple of things you can do: you can allow your nerves to control you or you can rise to the occasion.
The Red Sox have some health issues, but as a unit i think they have some guys heating up at the right time. It’s a testament to Theo Epstein and the front office to see guys like Justin Masterson making an impact in the bullpen in time for the playoffs. The Red Sox Hitters should have a good chance to come alive against the Angels pitching and the starting pitching should be good enought to keep the Sox in the game.
The Rays pulled off a tough win last night and show again why they are still in first place this late in the season. They have 5 good guys in the rotation who will give them 5 good innings and their offense doesn’t quit. Playing a first place team on the road is always tough and last night Tampa Bay showed why. Sonnanstine did his best to match Josh Beckett, and Carlos Pena kept his team in the game, allowing the Rays to get to the Sox bullpen.
Tonight’s game is pivotal, but the next series in Toronto could be equally as important. As I have said throughout the year, Toronto always play the Red Sox tough and this season the Blue Jays are 43-30 at home.
Beyond Tampa Bay and Toronto, the road to the World Series doesn’t get any easier because the Angels are still the best team in the AL.
This offense seems to be coming together as a unit. The smaller players in the lineup are making a big impact and I’m not talking about Pedroia because he has been big all year. But at this point, Dustin Pedroia is carrying the club. Last night it was the big home run and today it was a clutch home run in the seventh inning and a double in the eighth.
The Red Sox are starting to come together and you have to like there chances in the postseason even though the Angels are beating everyone. They need to get to the playoffs and hope they have their best guys healthy. Josh Beckett will be back, Lowell will come back, Youkilis will come back. Throw out your top guys in October and try to get wins early in the series.
Much has been made of the inexperience of this year’s Tampa Bay Rays team. Experience doesn’t have anything to do with postseason success. The Rays are a team who have been around the league and have experienced just about everything necessary to cope with the playoffs.To perform in the postseason all a player really needs is two years of big league experience. Two years is about the amount of service time that a ball player needs to become acclimated to the intensity of professional baseball and to pick up on the nuances in a hitter or pitcher’s tendencies. There really isn’t much that a player will see in the playoffs that they haven’t encountered at some point during the regular season.In the playoff push, the intensity ramps up at the end of regular season and prepares the team for what they will see in October. There are plenty of guys who have thrived in the playoffs in their first or second season. For examples, look no further than the postseason performances of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007. For every Rick Ankiel meltdown in the playoffs you have 5 or six players like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright, or Josh Beckett who thrive while under the spotlight.
Far more important than post season experience is clubhouse chemistry. The Yankees have a lineup loaded with talent and experience, and yet they haven’t won anything in years.
This past series against the White Sox was a split but I thought the Red played pretty good. They ran into some tough pitching but played each game competitively and, had they been able to score some runs against the bullpen, this could have been a 4 game sweep for Boston. I think people are worried about Josh Beckett but he just hasn’t been getting run support. Clay Buchholz is a different story; Clay needs confidence to hit spots because he has live fastball and good breaking ball. The problem is that he gets rattled when pressure’s on causing him to guide the ball the ball to the plate. When the velocity is not there his pitches hang. Clay has the ability and talent but his is still a little immature in his makeup.
Now Boston has a good opportunity to gain some momentum against Texas. Mike Lowell and Papi are both ready to go tonight (Lowell is here reading the paper). They both appear healthy so this series looks good for Boston.
I just talked to Bob Montgomery and he said that Charlie Zink is not quite as good as Wakefield in terms of movement on the knuckler, but that he has the ability to get outs regardless. What Zink needs to do is hit his locations and get swings and misses from last minute movement. If Zink can keep the team in the game and keep the ball in the ballpark, the Sox have a good chance of getting a win tonight.
Find some momentum in this series and get some confidence going into what could be a tough series at the end of the week against Toronto.
