The MLB Draft starts tonight at 6PM and I am asked every year, usually after the draft, for my thoughts on different players.  The problem is that it is so hard to tell how amateur players will perform at the professional level.  In basketball and football, the players are essentially playing the same game, just against an elevated level of competition.  But in baseball you have to account for the fact that these kids are going to start using wooden bats instead of aluminum, different stitching on the baseballs, pitch counts, and significantly longer seasons.  Given those variables, it’s just too hard to predict how a certain player will perform in the future.

With that being said, the success that the Red Sox have had in the draft is that much more impressive.  MLB.com did a great article about the decisions to draft Dustin Pedroia in 2004 and Jonathan Papelbon in 2003 show how the research and preparation of the front office has contributed to the team’s success.  I tip my cap to the Red Sox braintrust because I don’t know anything about the players who will be drafted tonight, just like I didn’t know anything about the players who were drafted with me in 1971.

Slumping is bad, but being in a slump as a designated hitter is even worse.  You realize that you can’t do anything in the game to help the team if you’re not hitting then you start to press too hard and the situation can get worse.People have raised a variety of concerns about Papi: that he’s got a problem with his swing, that his wrist is still hurt, that he’s lost bat speed.  None of those problems is the cause of this slump.  His swing looks the same as it always has (quick and fluid) and all indications are that his wrist is fine.  If these problems were the cause of his slump, there are things that a player can do to compensate (grab a lighter bat and tape the wrist).  Papi’s problem is that he is not seeing the ball well.

To bust out of this slump he needs to shorten his swing and hit the ball where it is pitched rather than getting angry and trying to crush 500 foot home runs every time he gets up.  Basically, he needs to hit more like Dustin Pedroia and less like Big Papi.  Pedroia hits the ball to all parts of the field and doesn’t press to put up power numbers.  Papi needs to be willing to hit the ball the other way, get on base, and let the power numbers come later.

I’m going to stick by what I have said about Papi all season, he will be fine.  He could still get hot and be on pace for a 25 home run season by the All Star break.

Julio Lugo just looks to me like he’s playing timid because of his knee.  Opposing players are bearing down on him in double play and he hasn’t dirtied his uniform for a ball in the hole since returning from knee surgery last month.  The first time someone knocks him over with a hard slide to break up a double play, it will bring him back.  He might land awkwardly, but he’ll be ok and he’ll finally know that he doesn’t need to play so conservatively.

Carl Crawford is 22 for 22 in stolen base attempts so far this season including 6 steals in as many attempts against the Red Sox last Sunday.  The way he runs and the amount of pitcher attention he draws from the while on base reminds me of Mickey Rivers, but the only ball player from my playing era who could have both had the opportunity to steal 6 bases in a game is Rickey Henderson.  Guys just don’t on base often enough to accomplish
that type of feat.

Let’s hope that Dustin Pedroia can bounce back quickly from the groin injury that forced him to leave last night’s game.  He’s a lead by example type in the field and a vocal leader in the clubhouse.  A lot has been made about the humorous side of Dustin’s personality, but in the clubhouse he is frequently the one to stand up, tell the other players to turn off the music, and give a talk about the upcoming game.  He just brings so much to the ballpark each day.

This offense seems to be coming together as a unit.  The smaller players in the lineup are making a big impact and I’m not talking about Pedroia because he has been big all year.  But at this point, Dustin Pedroia is carrying the club.  Last night it was the big home run and today it was a clutch home run in the seventh inning and a double in the eighth.
The Red Sox are starting to come together and you have to like there chances in the postseason even though the Angels are beating everyone.  They need to get to the playoffs and hope they have their best guys healthy.  Josh Beckett will be back, Lowell will come back, Youkilis will come back.  Throw out your top guys in October and try to get wins early in the series.

Much has been made of the inexperience of this year’s Tampa Bay Rays team.  Experience doesn’t have anything to do with postseason success.  The Rays are a team who have been around the league and have experienced just about everything necessary to cope with the playoffs.To perform in the postseason all a player really needs is two years of big league experience.  Two years is about the amount of service time that a ball player needs to become acclimated to the intensity of professional baseball and to pick up on the nuances in a hitter or pitcher’s tendencies.  There really isn’t much that a player will see in the playoffs that they haven’t encountered at some point during the regular season.In the playoff push, the intensity ramps up at the end of regular season and prepares the team for what they will see in October.  There are plenty of guys who have thrived in the playoffs in their first or second season.  For examples, look no further than the postseason performances of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007.  For every Rick Ankiel meltdown in the playoffs you have 5 or six players like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Wainwright, or Josh Beckett who thrive while under the spotlight.

Far more important than post season experience is clubhouse chemistry. The Yankees have a lineup loaded with talent and experience, and yet they haven’t won anything in years.

Justin Masterson is coming back to the Red Sox in a move that should help to shore up the bull pen. I hope this move is what it takes to solidify the relief pitching because I do NOT like the idea of trading for a reliever.

Relievers are such an unknown commodity in today’s game that just because you make a trade doesn’t mean it will work out. You never know how a player will perform after moving from a small market to big market or in the second half of the season. No one thought that Eric Gagne or Scott Saurbeck would perform the way they did following their respective trades to Boston.

While the team waits for help, the lineup needs to do some of the small things to steal runs. Over the last five games, the Red Sox have left too many runs on the table. The team needs to do the small things to help score runs. I know that Pedroia is a good hitting 2^nd basemen but does he ever bunt? I bunted and I was a pretty good hitter.

You need to do the small things to score runs because games are so much more important in the 2^nd half of the season than in April, May, and June.

To me there are a couple of big surprises that had the largest contributions to the Red Sox success in the first half. I don’t think anyone expected Dustin Pedroia would have a first half of the season like this. At this point in the season, Pedroia already has more homeruns than he did in all of 2007 in which he won the Rookie of the year award, and needs just 4 more RBI to beat last year’s total.

JD Drew’s offensive explosion is a welcome surprise as most people expected the 2007 version of Drew to be the type of production we would expect for the duration of his contract. This year’s version of JD Drew has been closer to the 2004 version that hit 30+ HR for the Atlanta Braves.

These offensive outbursts are the reasons that the that the Red Sox have been able to enter the all star break with a half game lead in the AL East even though they have played more than a month without David Ortiz.

Lowrie hit a home run for the Paw Sox last night and, more importantly, performed well in his brief call up to the major leagues. Some people have questioned whether Lowrie projects to be a shortstop long term or whether he will eventually switch to second or third base. It was tough to tell how Lowrie’s skill set will translate in the Major Leagues because his spot starting made it difficult to tell how he was adjusting to top talent.  We really need to see him play everyday against major league caliber pitching

I am not sure where the Red Sox will play Lowrie long term but his versatility works in his favor. What he needs to concentrate on is just getting in the big leagues. His willingness to play whatever position is asked of him will be what makes him catch on with this team - or any other. I remember Jeff Bagwell back when he was in the Red Sox organization as a young third baseman. We had Wade Boggs firmly entrenched at third in those days so Bagwell started taking work at first before he started his career in Houston.

With the millions of dollars committed to Lugo, Pedroia at 2nd base, and two potential third basemen in Lowell and Youkilis, would anyone be suprised to see if the Red Sox shop their prized prospect to other teams?

You always hear that a player has come to camp in the “best shape of his life.” Has anyone in camp this year really impressed you either physically or with the way he has played? – John D.

When you talk about “shape” it could mean two different things. Are we talking body wise or in baseball shape? If you look back at Babe Ruth, he was a heavy guy but he was in “baseball shape” and didn’t have trouble doing his job.

Last year people said Curt Schilling was fat.  I thought Schilling was in fantastic shape.  If you see him in the locker room, he’s not fat, he just has a bad body.  Some guys who come in a bit overweight know they’ll lose the weight in spring training anyway because they have a month of games and training before the season starts.

I look for guys who are focused mentally; guys who work on doing things to make them a better ball player. You want the veterans like Manny, Papi, and Lowell to be focused because when they roll, everyone rolls. Dustin Pedroia has worked hard this offseason. He is aware that pitchers know that he is a good fastball hitter and he will see more breaking balls this year. As hard as a Rookie season can be, a sophomore season can be equally hard, if not harder, because pitcher begin to know a hitter’s tendencies. But Dustin has worked hard and seems prepared for whatever the other teams throw at him. Other teams know that they have to come with something extra against the world champs.