The pressure is back on the Tampa Bay Rays! Maddon had his staff set up the way he wanted, but the Rays relievers had a bout of poor location. Blowing a seven run lead is damaging to a team in many ways and now the Rays may second guess themselves slightly which is a far cry from the confidence they exuded 12 hours ago. Meanwhile, they think the Red Sox can come back and so do the guys in Terry Francona’s clubhouse.Tom Verducci reported in Sports Illustrated that Josh Beckett has a torn oblique. He seems to be getting around just fine and I still think his problem is the layoff more than anything physical. In his last two outings he had poor location and his velocity was maybe 2-3 mph below where it normally is, but I didn’t see anything that lead me to believe that he was seriously injured. James Shields is a breaking ball pitcher who doesn’t have Beckett’s velocity, but has been effective in hitting his location.
The Red Sox just need to continue to take this series one game at a time and make adjustments at crucial points in the game. I have a good feeling about the team heading back down south.
The Red Sox are down 3-1 in this series but they have come back from deficits like this in the past. This is a different team than the team in 2004 and even from last year. If they make some adjustments, they could stay competitive in this series.
With Matsuzaka pitching for the Sox tonight, the Rays will be patient with him and if they get walks, they will run on the basepaths. Lester’s problem the other night was that he was missing location high up in the strike zone. Mistakes up in the zone often turn into homeruns, especially against good hitting teams like the Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground and not in the air because these flyballs are hit hard out of the ballpark.
The Red Sox hitters are hitting far too many weak ground balls. Too many times in this series, I have seen hitters roll over the ball and hit a lazy ground ball. The only guy hitting line drives recently is Kotsay. The way to hit hard line drives is to try to keep the ball on the bat as long as possible and make contact out in front of your body. This timing can be thrown off by a pitcher who changes speeds and locations effectively. If the Red Sox can make better adjustments against Kazmir tonight, it could bode well for them for the rest of the series.
A win tonight will be huge for the team. To the best of my knowledge, there is no injury to Josh Beckett and that his problems are a result of the long layoff more than anything else. If he were to come back and pitch a strong game 6, we could have a very interesting situation unfolding in Tampa Bay this weekend.
Game 1
I like the Red Sox chances in this series but there are some factors that could swing the advantage in this series either way. Any emotions involving the Red Sox brawl with James Shields is out the window at this point because too much is riding on these games to allow emotion to become involved. The team has been spending time and looking at Shields’ most recent starts. Some hitters need to bring a change of approach and I expect them to do that tonight.
Matsuzaka walks a lot of guys and the Rays have guys who can run, which isn’t a combination that works in Boston’s favor. When Matsuzaka starts to nibble, his pitch count goes up quick. He needs to get ahead of hitters to make it harder for them to be aggressive. As a hitter, when I guy when the guy came right at me I couldn’t be ass aggressive as I wanted because the strikes pile up and you lose control. But if the count is 2 balls and 1 strike and the hitter feels that you can’t find the plate, he will gain confidence.
Game 2
Beckett will pitch better because he doesn’t have a 14 day layoff to contend with. He will be better than the last outing but how much better is the question we will find out on Saturday night. The Red Sox had success against Scott Kazmir last time we faced him and you have to anticipate that he will make adjustments because he is an outstanding pitcher.
The Rays have an advantage everywhere, not just at home. They are young and talented and won when there weren’t any fans at the games. For the Rays, home field advantage is inside the clubhouse among twenty-five guys who have beaten adversity for an entire season.
The Red Sox need to win at least one game down in Tampa. Hopefully they can win the first game because they have a better chance of winning the second with Beckett on the mound than Matsuzaka. If they lose the first game, the second almost becomes a must win type game.
Prediction:The Red Sox earn at least a split in the two games in Tampa and take the series in 6 games.
The media has made a point about the importance of home field advantage in the upcoming series against Tampa Bay. Back when I played, we never worried about home field advantage and I don’t think this Red Sox team will either.
But there are plenty of things that have changed since I played. The biggest change is that when I played, managers did not stress the importance of match ups. The Red Sox teams I played on had everyday players and experienced guys like Rico and Yaz who a manager would never let sit for a game because they struggle against a certain pitcher. There were no role players, no specialist pitchers, and really no scouting reports. Free agency wasn’t so prevalent so you knew the opponents and didn’t need reports on paper because you knew the opponent in your head.
If you take a look at numbers, the bullpens are close but Tampa’s is a little bit better, both pitching rotations are comparable, and the lineups favor Boston slightly as the Rays did not have a hitter who batted over .300 this season. Statistically the teams are very close.
But the Rays have given the Red Sox trouble all year. The Angels played a great season and got to 100 wins, but had the advantage of facing the Rangers, A’s, and Mariners about 60 times this season. Look how many times the Rays have come from behind to win against the Red Sox this season. Tampa has gained confidence by beating money market teams and now they are ready to play on the main stage. They have beaten tough teams, they’re young, and they can play. No matter the outcome, they have made a name for themselves. The Rays are for real.
The turning point of last night’s game was when Torii Hunter laced a two strike pitch following a Jason Varitek passed ball that put runners at second and third. However, there was another turning point an inning later when Erik Aybar missed a squeeze bunt that caught Willits in a run down between home and third base. This caused the momentum to swing back in Boston’s favor and Jason Bay cut a ball down the right field line for a double.
Mike Scioscia played the match ups in the ninth inning and you can’t fault him for it. In spite of the double by Bay and the hard hit line-out from Mark Kotsay, Scioscia stuck with Scot Shields in relief. Mike Scioscia knows that the Red Sox are a bad breaking ball hitting team and Shields has a great breaking ball. Throughout the series, the Red Sox saw a lot of breaking balls in crucial situations as did Bay and Jed Lowrie in their last at-bats.
Daisuke Matsuzaka doesn’t have the same stuff as Lester so I want to see how this game plays out. A pitcher can’t afford to walk guys in this lineup because if the Angels are able to get men on base they will come back and score. Daisuke needs to make the hitters earn anything they get in their at-bats by keeping hitters on the balls of their feet and not on the heels.
Expect the hitters to show the same patience tonight against Santana that was successful in game 1 against John Lackey. The important thing for the Red Sox to remember is to hit the ball where it is pitched and not try to do too much. Pull the inside pitch and if the pitch is away from the hitter then hit it to the opposite field.
The bullpen pitched well in the first game and Terry Francona can use a lot of the same guys because of the off day between each game. Everybody in the bullpen is healthy so Terry can use the same guy to set up in two straight games or go to the bullpen early if Daisuke gets wild.
I graduated High School in 1971 and joined the Red Sox Organization in the summer of that year. In 1972, I was invited to my first spring training with the Boston Red Sox and Sam Mele introduced me to Johnny Pesky who would eventually become my hitting instructor and friend. That year, Johnny told me I had a chance to make it to the big leagues and that just increased my drive.Johnny started working with me at the big league camp in 1973 and was my personal instructor for most of my career. Johnny would work with me on hitting and fielding for as long as I wanted and always expressed the simplified approach to batting: “see it and hit it.”
Then knowledge and experience Johnny shared with me were invaluable in my Red Sox career. He had played with the best hitter in the game, Ted Williams. He played alongside a Hall of Fame Outfielder, a Hall of Fame second baseman, and Domenic DiMaggio whose brother Joe is in the Hall of Fame. Johnny knew all of those guys and was able to share their experiences as well as his own. He was not a player who would hit 35 home runs, but he would get 200 hits and create opportunities for Williams to drive in runs.
I still keep in touch with Johnny to this day. I see him at Spring Training in February and we will drive from the hotel to the ballpark together. He is at Fenway Park almost as often now as he was as a coach in the 1970’s. He was a great player and is a great friend. He has given a lot to this organization throughout his career and I am proud to see his number 6 in right field alongside the numbers worn by other Red Sox greats.
The regular season series doesn’t mean anything now that the playoffs are here. Looking at the two teams on paper, the Red Sox have an edge in hitting and pitching. The Angels have been successful in the intangible aspects of the game. They have the ability to win close games with excellent situational hitting and by manufacturing runs through Mike Scioscia’s brand of small ball. The Angels proved this season that they can get to 100 wins without Vladimir Guerrero hitting 30 homeruns or any pitcher winning 20 games.
But in this series, you have to like the Red Sox chances of winning while sending Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Josh Beckett out to the mound in a best of 5 series. Jon Lester has pitched in the World Series! These young guys from Boston play in a packed house every night and they have all been to the post-season in the past. This series will hinge on which team is sharper. When someone tells you that you will be on National TV that night, there are a couple of things you can do: you can allow your nerves to control you or you can rise to the occasion.
The Red Sox have some health issues, but as a unit i think they have some guys heating up at the right time. It’s a testament to Theo Epstein and the front office to see guys like Justin Masterson making an impact in the bullpen in time for the playoffs. The Red Sox Hitters should have a good chance to come alive against the Angels pitching and the starting pitching should be good enought to keep the Sox in the game.
